Sunrise at Apalachee Regional Park in Tallahassee, Florida, on 7 November 2015 is at 6:55 AM. 35 minutes later a starting pistol will fire, setting in motion the first race of the FHSAA State Cross Country Final. This is the payoff that all the Region meets, all the district meets, all the early- and mid-season races, all the workouts, and all the summer mileage have been pointing toward.

That first gunshot will be for the 3A girls’ 5K. As the runner-up in the 2014 race, Saint Augustine senior Kelly Aponte is the top returner from last year’s 3A State Final. However, Aponte was only fourth in the 3A Region 1 race behind Ponte Vedra sophomore Claire Moritz, Columbia sophomore Bridget Morse, and Chiles senior Emma Tucker. Tucker has run 18:26.10 on the Apalachee Regional Park course this year, faster than any other girl in class 3A. By comparison Fort Myers junior and 3A Region 3 champ Kristilin Gear has run 18:43.10 at ARPXC, and Leesburg junior and 3A Region 2 champ Kara Funke has run 19:01.00. Dillard senior and 3A Region 4 winner Brittany Gill doesn’t have any performances on the State Meet course. She just wins races. All of them, except for a runner-up finish at FLRunners. Gill has also consistently beaten Pine Crest runners who have posted marks of 18:05.90 and 18:21.80 at Pre State on the Apalachee Regional Park course. She may be the favorite.

Ponte Vedra's Claire Moritz (Bib 712) en route to winning the Girls 3A Regional 1 Meet (Brad McCann)

At the Alligator Lake Invitational the Niceville girls beat Chiles. At Pre State the Chiles girls beat Niceville. At 3A Region 1 the Niceville girls beat Chiles. At the last meet, though, the margin was only nine points. Either team could have been holding something back at Region, but all the cards will go on the table at State. I think Chiles will have the winning hand, but a race this close could be decided by a head cold or a lost shoe.

Whether there are still stragglers from the 3A girls’ race on the course or not, the starting gun will fire again at 7:55 for the 4A girls 5K. You just might see the fastest girls’ performance of the morning in this race because the defending champ, Winter Park sophomore Rafaella Gibbons, will be in the field. Gibbons isn’t undefeated on the season, but she had to go all the way to Atlanta Georgia, to find her sole loss. Fletcher junior Kayley DeLay and Lake Mary junior Daniela Urzua should be part of the fight for second, as should undefeated Riverview sophomore Bailey Hertenstein.

Riverview's Bailey Hertenstein continues her undeafeated season winning the Hillsborough County Championships (Bob Murphy/Justshootitphoto.com)

All Hallows’ Eve is behind us, so it would be in extremely bad taste for me to spin a scary story about what could happen to the Winter Park girls to prevent them from defending their class 4A title. Yes, they could lose. No, they won’t. Sarasota and Dr. Phillips will contend for second place.

The 3A boys’ 5K is slated for 8:20. In 2013 and 2014 the only sub-15:00 performer in Florida was in this race, and now the same is true in 2015. The previous two years it was Sukhi Khosla; this year it’s Steven Cross. The Merritt Island senior hasn't been beaten by a 3A runner this season, and he defeated the best runners in all classes at Pre State, giving him the fastest time at ARPXC this year. After that, his 14:56 at the Cape Coast Conference Meet is just an extra exclamation point.

The team competition in the 3A boys’ race could be interesting. Chile, champs in 2013 and 2014, graduated so many seniors that you wouldn’t have expected them to contend this season. 2015 looked like the year that Belen Jesuit would resume collecting state championship trophies. But Chiles scored eight points better than Belen at Pre State. Then Creekside knocked off Chiles at the 3A Region 1 Meet. I’ll be watching the video board to see how this one turns out.

Sarasota senior Adam Bradtmueller and Lyman senior Joshua Jacques will both be in the 4A boys' race, which starts at 8:45. Bradtmueller and Jacques have met three times this season. Jacques finished well ahead of Bradtmueller at FLRunners and at the Mountain Dew Invitational, but Bradtmueller edged Jacques at Pre State--on the same course that they’ll be racing on Saturday. Jacques had a faster run to win 4A Region 1, but Bradtmueller had an easier run to win 4A Region 2. Watch this one closely.

The Bradtmueller-Jacques showdown also has implications for the team competition, where Sarasota and Lyman will be contending for a spot on the podium. But both teams will be up against 4A Region 4 champs St Thomas Aquinas. St Thomas Aquinas placed ahead of Sarasota and Lyman at Pre State.

The 1A girls crank it up at 9:10. Mount Dora Christian frosh Rebecca Clark was runner-up in the 2014 1A girls' State Final, making her the top returner. However, at Pre State, Clark finished more than 15 seconds behind Calvary Christian senior Hannah Brookover. That's about 70 meters, and a lot of ground to make up. Baker eighth-grader and 1A Region 1 champion Maya Espinosa will be in the hunt, trying to improve on her fifth-place finish in 2014. Oak Hall sophomore Grace Blair and Holy Trinity senior Shelby Smith should also be in the mix.

Smith and the Holy Trinity girls will also be going after a third-straight team championship in class 1A. Circle Christian and Maclay may have something to say about that.

The 2A girls start at 9:35. Bolles sophomore Caitlyn Collier and Pine Crest senior Alyssa Pujols have only met once this season, but that was on the Apalachee Regional Park course at Pre State. Collier was the fastest 2A girl that day, going 17:58.20. Pujals was two places back at 18:05.90.  The advantage goes to Collier, but it’s not a big advantage.

Collier and Pujols’ duel is especially significant because Bolles and Pine Crest each have a shot at the team title. Pine Crest and Bolles went one-two at Pre State, so you could argue that they’re the best two high school girls’ teams in Florida. Pine Crest had the edge that day, but the Panthers had to hold Tsion Yared, the defending champion in class 2A, out of the Region 4 meet. Maybe she’ll be rested. Maybe she won’t be ready to run. We’ll find out on November 7.

It’s already possible to look up the temperature forecast for 10:00 AM on Saturday. If you do, though, I don’t think you’ll like what you see. However depressing the temperature, that’s what the class 1A boys will have to run in. Remember Steven Cross? Well, Seffner Christian senior Noah Perkins is still the only runner to beat Cross in 2015, edging him for the win at FLRunners. Perkins ran 15:25.90 on the Apalachee Regional Park course at Pre State, where no one else in class 1A cracked 16:00. If Perkins is up to form, his only problem during the race Saturday should be loneliness.

The boys’ team competition in class 1A is much closer. Maclay seem to be the odds on end favorite going in.  Father Lopez, Shorecrest Prep, Westminster Academy, and Bishop Snyder are in the hunt as well.  This race is encumbent on having a solid #5.  Shorecrest Prep and Bishop Snyer's chances will be greatly helped by having a low stick.

Competition at the State Final concludes with the 2A boys’ race, scheduled to start at 10:25 AM. It’s somewhat frightening that at Pre State the three fastest class 2A runners were all from Trinity Prep--senior Chas Cook (15:44.8), junior Trent Mandato (15:58.8), and senior Jesse Millson (16:05.3). Ransom Everglades senior Gabe Correa went 15:51 and 16:00 at Apalachee Regional Park in 2014, but State will be his first trip to Tallahassee this season. He’ll have to have improved to run with Cook. Bolles freshmen Charles Hicks and Chase Rivera will be trying to compete with the top Trinity Prep runners, but Cook may be out of their league.

It’s likely that Trinity Prep is out of their league, too. The Saints won the boys’ team title in the Pre State Elite race, beating Florida teams of every classification and a few Georgia squads as well. The Trinity Prep boys are probably the best high school team in Florida this year, and almost certainly the best in class 2A. Behind the Saints, Bolles and Bishop Kenny should be locked in a struggle to see who will take the runner-up trophy home to Jacksonville.

Bolles Bulldogs at the 2015 FSU Pre-State Invitational (Robert "Twangster" Brown)

With eight races in four classifications, some people might say that the State Cross Country Final is too much of a good thing. Around the sixth or seventh race of the morning, they might actually find others to agree with them. Personally, I can’t wait for it to start, and I’ll be sorry when it’s over.